Car sharing, taxis and self-driving cars
Residents of megacities are switching to car sharing and taxi services, and in 10-20 years they will massively switch to “drones”.
Under these conditions, automakers are forced to experiment with new business models in order to maintain their position in the market. We figure out who will win in the long run, and how urban mobility will develop in the market.
Car sales are declining
In the 2010s, the automotive market was going through hard times. Car sales were steadily falling, manufacturers were recording losses, and analysts were taking the crisis seriously.
The turning point is 2019, after which the fall in sales will be the lowest since the financial crisis of 2008. The drop in demand overtook even the largest car market. In China, sales fell 10%. -1.3% in the US.
Why is this happening? There are several reasons. One of the main factors is the distribution of taxes. As IMF experts found out, the availability of retail car rental services had a significant impact on residents of large cities.
The second factor is the acceleration of technological progress. Why buy a new car model when an improved version comes out tomorrow with more features and at the same price? Consumers are on the lookout and should not be in a hurry to buy.
Don`t forget to save. Recently, HSBC bank analysts (VIN check) came to the conclusion that it is more profitable for Russia to drive less than 5,400 km per year on a TA. Car sharing is even more profitable. According to Data Insight and Y, buying your own car doesn`t make much sense for consumers in these situations, especially given the increase in tax rates in 2019.
Democratic brands are losing ground
The first wait-and-see attitude that consumers take affects democratic brands. For example, Nissan sales in Russia fell by 16% in the first nine months of 2019. Renault, Toutaota, Mitsubishi and Mazda also got worse. In general, the dynamics for this period amounted to -2.5%. In the premium segment, the figures are better - + 2.7%.
"AUTOSTAT" Statistics for November (see: VIN lookup free) looks even sadder. Sales decreased by 8.5% in the mass segment and increased by 6.4% in the premium segment. The popular KIA and Datsun models also sold poorly.
At the same time, the share of the mass market in the Russian automotive market is more than 90%, and low sales statistics are reflected in the performance of the entire automotive market. Manufacturers enter the new decade in a very precarious position, especially given the significant rise in R&D costs in the field of unmanned technology.
Free parking will be (again) less
The more accessible the parking space, the more often residents will use their car. Free parking in large cities is a definite plus for car owners, but it increases the number of cars on the roads, exacerbates traffic congestion, and the cost of maintaining the city is very high. Research shows that the availability of parking spaces is inversely related to the demand for public transport. The higher the fare, the less often residents use their car.
The city began introducing paid parking seven years ago, its coverage is increasing every year, prices are rising, and in the future it may increase to $10-30 per hour (Deptrans recently announced:) We plan to expand the coverage of paid parking in some areas.
In addition, Russia wants to revise the parking size standard, reducing it to 0.5 meters wide and 0.3 meters long. For this reason, we would like to increase the capacity of the paid area. Access roads to expensive parking lots will be strengthened in the coming years, the number of cars in the center will be reduced, and the main KPI of Deptrans will continue to be road unloading.
Car sharing and taxi
Urban planning expert Donald Shoop has calculated that, on average, a car spends 95% of its time in a stationary state throughout its life. Private cars in Moscow leave the yard or garage less than once a week. For comparison, carsharing cars make 6-10 trips and TPs. As a result, the efficiency of the vehicle is improved. The number of downtimes is reduced, and several times more people ride a day. See VIN decoder for details.
Thus, users of carsharing usually drive about 13 km, an average of 32 minutes and 224 rubles. They save gas and parking and don`t spend money on repairs, taxes and insurance in the long run. At the same time, Muscovites who travel to the city every day spend about 200 hours a year looking for parking spaces.